Cardinals top 20 prospects 2023: Keith Law ranks St. Louis minor league farm system

Publish date: 2024-06-03

The Cardinals’ system has lost some depth in the last couple of years with trades and promotions, but that 2020 draft class looks like an all-timer, with three guys placed on the top 100 and two more on the list below in just five rounds. They’ve also brought in a very interesting group of position-player prospects from the 2021 and 2022 international free-agent classes that might help buttress the system once that ’20 draft group has graduated.

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MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system

The ranking

1. Jordan Walker, OF (Top 100 ranking: No. 5)

Age: 21 | 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 21 in 2020

Walker has shown an advanced approach at the plate from the moment he made his debut to start 2021, moving to Double A last year in his age-20 season and finishing third in the Texas League in slugging and seventh in OBP despite being the league’s youngest everyday player on Opening Day and one of only two 20-year-olds to qualify in that league (along with teammate Masyn Winn). Walker is a big man, 6-foot-5, listed at 220 pounds but stronger than that already, and already makes above-average quality contact, with more power projected as he continues filling out and catches up to the age of his leagues. His swing is very easy and simple, so while he doesn’t have elite bat speed, he gets the bat to the zone quickly enough to hit better velocity. He’s primarily a fastball hitter still, struggling more with soft stuff down and away, relatively speaking, although his zone awareness is ahead of most 20-year-old hitters’, and it’s hard to beat him anywhere on the inner half. He’s a below-average runner who was already challenged at third base, and since the Cardinals have Brooks Robinson over there, they’ve moved Walker to right field. After Aug. 1, he played just two games at third base, and all his AFL time came in right. He’s a good enough athlete that he should be at least a 55 defender out there, if not more. He might be a 30-homer guy, although it’s more likely he’s a 20-25 homer guy who posts high averages and OBPs, maybe the sort of player who gets underrated because he’s not exceptionally fast or toolsy but offers consistently stellar production over a long period.

2. Masyn Winn, SS (No. 46)

Age: 21 | 5-11 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 54 in 2020

Winn has the best shortstop arm in the minors, probably the best infield arm in the minors, and one of the best arms attached to any human being, anywhere; he uncorked a throw in the Futures Game that was the hardest ever recorded by Statcast from an infielder at 100.5 mph. He also has electric bat speed, the kind where you worry it might be in and out of the zone too quickly. He’s killed fastballs so far and has a very good feel for the strike zone; he has the most trouble right now with pitchers changing speeds on him. He’s a plus runner who has stolen 75 bags in two years with an 88 percent success rate, more tangible evidence of how good his instincts and feel for the game are. Even as is, he should be a plus defender who hits for average and slaps the ball around the field, but with his bat speed, he might surprise with his power when he fills out. You can really dream on Winn’s tools and see a better ceiling than even teammate Jordan Walker, especially since Winn plays up the middle, but with more volatility in his potential outcomes.

3. Tink Hence, RHP (No. 63)

Age: 20 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 63 in 2020

That Cardinals draft in 2020 might be an all-timer even though it was just five rounds long (and seven picks for the Cards). They landed Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn, both of whom are on the top 100; Alec Burleson, who reached the majors last year; and Hence, who was one of the youngest players in the class and only threw eight innings in 2021, but now is the team’s best pitching prospect after a proper debut in 2022. Hence is uber-athletic and has a very quick arm, sitting 95-96 mph in his one-inning outings in the AFL and more 92-96 as a three-inning starter this year, showing a plus changeup and an average curveball, with room to improve across the board. In longer outings earlier in the year, he’d show the same or better velocity, up to 98 with life at the top of the zone, and the curveball would be plus, while he’d also flash an average slider. He’s on the smaller side for a starter, listed at a generous 6-1, filling out some since the draft but still on the lean side, and he had some shoulder tenderness that limited him in 2021. If he stays healthy, he has No. 1-2 starter potential, with three pitches that could all be 55s or better, a delivery that works and the athleticism to keep adjusting and improving.

4. Gordon Graceffo, RHP (No. 66)

Age: 23 | 6-4 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 151 in 2021

Graceffo showed up last spring throwing harder than ever before, working 93-98, and held it all season while the rest of his arsenal ticked up in tandem, taking him from a back-end starter without much ceiling to a potential No. 3 or better. He gets on top of the ball well with a compact delivery, getting ahead with the fastball but throwing offspeed stuff for the majority of his pitches, with the slider the best offering but the curve and changeup both solid-average or better pitches. He was an elite strike-thrower at Villanova and carried that into pro ball, walking just four men in 45 2/3 innings (2.4 percent) in High A before his promotion to Double A, where he walked all of 6 percent of batters faced. He might have four grade-50 to 55 pitches, but nothing is clearly plus, either, which is why he projects as a mid-rotation starter even with all of these superlatives. I can’t rule out further improvement given how far he’s already come, though.

5. Matt Liberatore, LHP (just-missed list)

Age: 23 | 6-4 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 16 in 2018

Liberatore’s major-league debut was something of a disappointment, although it confirmed what the Rays feared when they originally traded him to the Cardinals in 2020 in a four-player deal that landed them Randy Arozarena: Liberatore’s four-seamer is too hittable and plays below its velocity. I don’t see this as a dealbreaker, but as a sign that he needs a different approach. Liberatore has a plus curveball with high spin and an above-average changeup, both of which generated 30 percent-plus whiff rates in his brief time in the big leagues, and he needs to use them a lot more, de-emphasizing the four-seamer in the process. Statcast credits him with a sinker, although it only shows modest differences from the four-seamer in velocity, spin, and movement, and only a third of balls hit into play off it were groundballs, so I’m not sure it’s truly a distinct pitch. He’s got command, a good delivery, above-average extension, and two weapons in his arsenal. He needs a new pitching plan to make better use of all the things he can do well and stop relying on one thing he can’t.

Matt Liberatore pitching in the 2021 MLB All Star Futures Game. (Ron Chenoy / USA Today)

6. Ivan Herrera, C (just-missed list)

Age: 23 | 5-11 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2016

Herrera is blocked by Willson Contreras, but he’s still ready to be someone’s everyday catcher, even if it’s not in St. Louis. Herrera is a high-contact hitter who almost never misses fastballs, still fares well against offspeed stuff, and doesn’t chase much out of the zone. He makes a lot of medium-quality contact, putting the ball on the ground more often in 2022 and losing some of the power he’d shown in 2021, when he hit 17 homers — he went three months between homers in 2022, finally hitting three in September to double his season total. His swing is probably too close to flat, lacking the angle in 2022 for big flies, although there’s no reason he can’t be a big doubles hitter with 8-12 homers given his size and selectivity. Behind the plate, he’s a solid-average receiver with a 55 arm, although he also had his career-worst caught-stealing percentage in 2022, throwing out just 18 percent of runners. Perhaps the down year on both sides of the ball led the Cardinals to go outside for a full-time catcher, as they’re contenders and don’t have the luxury of time. Herrea won’t turn 23 until June, however, and I think he’s someone’s regular, with enough contact quality now to make him a solid everyday player even if he’s only hitting a half-dozen homers a year.

7. Alec Burleson, OF

Age: 24 | 6-2 | 212 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 70 in 2020

Burleson is a soft 50 for me, a big leaguer who’s a regular on some teams but not all, with the strength for all-fields power but too much tendency to expand beyond the zone. I didn’t think he’d be able to handle good velocity, but he did so in the minors, showing he can turn on good stuff up in the zone and take stuff middle-away to the opposite field. He’s a below-average runner and defender in either outfield corner, although that could improve a little with better positioning. He could step in and be the Cards’ everyday right fielder this year and hit 20-25 homers with an OBP in the low .300s.

8. Joshua Baez, OF

Age: 20 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 54 in 2021

Baez only played in 32 games last summer but showed the highs and lows he offers — he had 13 extra-base hits, even with the humidity of the Florida Complex and Florida State Leagues, with 16 walks, but struck out 44 times (36 percent). He hurt his wrist in his first game of the year in mid-May, missing over two months with the injury, so it’s possible he wasn’t 100 percent when he returned, too. He’s an average runner with a 70 arm who should be able to play a capable right field, maybe ending up an above-average defender there. He swings hard all the time, which is why he has that huge raw power, but contact is probably going to be his main obstacle as a result.

9. Michael McGreevy, RHP

Age: 22 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 18 in 2021

McGreevy was their first-round pick in 2021 and was in Double A before midseason, where he started to run into trouble with hard contact and home runs because his stuff is mostly just average. He’s a command guy who throws a lot of strikes and has excellent feel for his above-average slider, using it for chases and even some called strikes, making up for the fastball, which is mostly 91-94. His stuff just got hit hard, and while a little of that is location, it’s more about the quality of his pitches, and he might have to find more velocity or improve the breaking stuff to be a back-end starter.

10. Cooper Hjerpe, LHP

Age: 22 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 22 in 2022

The Cardinals’ first-round pick in 2022 has a plus slider and changeup, coming from a very low slot with extreme cross-body action in his delivery. His fastball is just average and scouts worried he wouldn’t hold his velocity as a starter in pro ball. I’m more concerned about the delivery, which is more crossfire than any big-league starter I can think of, and which I think puts him at an 80 percent or more probability of a bullpen future.

11. Jonathan Mejia, SS

Age: 18 | 6-0 | 185 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
International signing in 2022

Mejia signed last January for $2 million and had a solid debut in the DSL, with a .418 OBP and quite a bit of power for a 17-year-old, with a chance for a 55 hit/55 power upside. He’s a shortstop now and could stay there with work, depending on how his body develops, with the arm for third base if he outgrows short.

12. Leonardo Bernal, C

Age: 19 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021

Yet another Panamanian catcher (like Herrera), Bernal started the year in extended, went to Low A in June and scuffled at first, but improved as the summer progressed, finishing with seven homers in 45 games — pretty good in a full-season league where only 19 players reached double digits last year. He’s a switch hitter with a simple but powerful swing, and he is certainly built like a traditional catcher. He signed for just $680,000 in January of 2021.

13. Inohan Paniagua, RHP

Age: 23 | 6-1 | 148 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2017

Paniagua’s a command righty with a barely-average fastball that has some four-seam life and an above-average 12-to-6 curveball that really fools right-handed batters. His changeup is more of a 45 and he did have trouble with lefties, but he’s still projectable even at 23 this season. He walked just 7 percent of batters between Low and High A last year, and with the possible out pitch I could see at least a swingman future for him. Another half-grade of velocity and an improved changeup would give him starter upside.

14. Brycen Mautz, LHP

Age: 21 | 6-3 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 59 in 2022

The Cards’ second rounder from 2022, Mautz is also a lower-slot guy with a plus slider and average fastball, with a less cross-body delivery than Hjerpe’s but without the plus changeup. He has a change, but didn’t use it that much in college and had trouble with right-handed batters, so either he’ll need to improve the pitch or perhaps just use it a lot more. It’s hard to see him as a starter if he can’t find a way to neutralize right-handed batters given his arm slot and the way both fastball and slider move toward their bat paths.

15. Alec Willis, RHP

Age: 20 | 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 211 in 2021

Willis is 6-foot-5 with a fastball up to 95 and a slow but effective knuckle-curve, throwing 11 1/3 innings in the FCL last year as the Cardinals try to bring him along slowly after he missed 2020 with ulnar nerve decompression surgery and pitched just once in 2021 after they drafted him. He’s a long way off but I like the body and delivery.

16. Pete Hansen, LHP

Age: 22 | 6-2 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 97 in 2022

Hansen has a 55 slider and walked just 19 men in 107 2/3 innings last spring for the Texas Longhorns (4.4 percent), but his fastball is just fringy right now and he barely has a third pitch. He’d be interesting if the Cards can bump up his velocity, although he also needs a much better changeup to start.

17. Won-Bin Cho, OF

Age: 19 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
International signing in 2017

Signed last January for an undisclosed bonus after he turned down the KBO draft in his native South Korea, Cho made his debut in the GCL last summer, missing a month due to injury and not producing much beyond drawing some walks. He’s 6-foot-3 and strong with above-average raw power already, and his swing should lead to some power not just to his pull side but straight away. He’s going to end up in a corner but has the kind of hit/power upside to profile there, with the move to full-season ball this year a more telling indicator of how advanced his bat really is.

18. Austin Love, RHP

Age: 24 | 6-3 | 232 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 90 in 2021

Love is built like a starter and durable enough for the workload, but lefties destroyed him last year (.343/.414/.502) in High A, so either he develops a pitch to get them out or goes to the bullpen, which doesn’t seem like would make good use of his best attribute: durability.

19. Ian Bedell, RHP

Age: 23 | 6-2 | 198 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 122 in 2020

Bedell was part of that epic 2020 draft for the Cardinals, but threw just 2 2/3 innings in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, making it back for the very end of last year. Pre-surgery, he’d show four pitches with good deception and above-average control, lacking a real swing-and-miss weapon but with enough going for him to project him as a fourth starter.

20. Jeremy Rivas, SS

Age: 20 | 6-0 | 172 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2019

Signed for just $600,000 way back in 2019, the Venezuelan Rivas projects to stay at short and perhaps end up plus there, while at the plate he’s shown good contact skills but hasn’t developed any power yet, even to just make better quality contact.

Others of note

Catcher Luis Rodriguez signed last January as an international free agent as a bat-first guy who could stay behind the plate but whose real asset is a pretty right-handed swing that might let him hit for average and power. He hit .301/.347/.473 in 101 PA in the DSL last summer. … Right-hander Max Rajcic is barely six feet and maxed out, but he throws strikes with a four-pitch mix, led by an above-average changeup. … The Cardinals sent, by far, the best collection of prospects to the AFL, with Walker, Winn, and Hence. The group also included some possible future relievers, including right-hander Kyle Leahy, who was 93-96 with a decent curveball at 79-82 and a slider around 84-85; right-hander Ryan Loutos, who was 93-95 with a slider or cutter at 89, coming from a long, catapult-like delivery; and command lefty Connor Thomas, who works with a 45 fastball and big action changeup, throwing a ton of strikes but giving up way too much hard contact to righties in Triple A last year.

2023 impact

Burleson could end up getting a lot of playing time in a corner this year if Tyler O’Neill struggles again. Liberatore might end up their fifth starter in April, or just get a bunch of spot starts over the course of the year.

The fallen

The Cards gave $1.5 million to second-round Maine high school outfielder Tre Fletcher, who reclassified into that draft and gave up a scholarship to Vanderbilt, back in 2019. He went 0-for-16 with 16 strikeouts in Low A last year, then went 4-for-47 in the GCL as a 21-year-old. He had tools but there were huge questions on the hit tool after the draft; at this point, he’s probably a release candidate if he doesn’t earn a place in Low A on Opening Day.

Sleeper

Bernal is really intriguing as a catcher with a good swing and a chance to come into some power. Their international group has brought in some very interesting hitting prospects who all seem to share good-looking, repeatable swing mechanics.

(Top photo of Jordan Walker: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

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