NFL Week 12 picks against the spread: Brock Purdy boosts MVP case on Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving preparation is always tough, and I’m not talking about the lovely people living in the kitchen for a couple of days.

Bringing a side dish or a dessert — or even dinner rolls — is pressure-packed, because they have to be very good due to the buildup to the meal. Hanging out at the table and (winces) talking before making your move to the couch to watch the games … it can be a very delicate situation. Do you really offer to help clean up?

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And, hopefully you remember not to eat or drink too much where you just pass out. Tryptophan is no joke.

This year, picking the three games is also tricky.

The NFC’s three best non-Eagles teams are playing Thursday, and two of them are going to win easily. The Lions, Cowboys and the 49ers’ Brock Purdy are rolling, and while they should put up W’s, it’s hard to see them all covering inflated point spreads.

Jordan Love, Sam Howell or … Drew Lock (really?) is going to make some people really, really queasy with a late “meaningless” touchdown. But which one?

GO DEEPER

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Last week: 6-8 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets.

Season record: 92-82-2 ATS, 31-24 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

The Lions were up 27-3 at halftime in Green Bay two months ago before they called the dogs off. They ran for 211 yards, and the Packers will assuredly overcompensate in that area, which means big days for Detroit targets Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. (The Packers secondary is banged up as well.) The Lions are off to their best start in 61 years because they can beat you in different ways — they are 6-1 when out-passing their opponent and 6-1 when out-rushing their opponent. The Packers’ Love has had some success in recent weeks by throwing shorter (6.6 air yards per pass attempt in Sunday’s win over the Chargers), but he is going to have to take some chances Thursday. The results will be just like the time you tried to deep-fry your turkey and set the garage on fire.

The pick: Lions 

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That loss to Tommy DeVito and the Giants last week signals the end of the Ron Rivera era in Washington. Technically, it was over when they traded away two of his best defensive players three weeks ago, but now … getting swept by the Giants. Bye. And the Commanders still have no idea if Howell (three interceptions last week) is their quarterback of the future. The Cowboys, meanwhile, lead the NFL with a +12.7 points per game scoring margin, the franchise’s best through 10 games since 1973. They already have six wins of 20 or more points this season, but are due for their first sleepwalker since losing to the Cardinals in Week 3. The host Cowboys are 1-11 against the spread on Thanksgiving since 2011 (Dak Prescott is 1-5 ATS) as they must be thinking of mom’s sweet potato casserole when the fourth quarter starts. Howell is a tease and is the answer to our question up top. Cowboys by 8.

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The pick: Commanders 

Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith said he could play with a bad elbow, but that it was up to coach Pete Carroll. I don’t think it matters, as Smith has been hot and cold even when healthy, and Seattle has averaged 17.5 points per game since Week 6 (24th), including 10.7 in its three losses over that span. Is an injured Smith better than Lock? There’s a topic for the dinner table.

The Seahawks are also missing Kenneth Walker III and get a 49ers defense that is humming again since it stole Chase Young from the Commanders. And then there’s Purdy. He became the first 49ers QB to post a perfect passer rating (158.3) since Joe Montana — this despite being pressured on a career-high 51.6 percent of his dropbacks by the Buccaneers. Purdy leads the NFL with a 9.7 yards per attempt average, and if the 49ers go 6-1 or 7-0 down the stretch, he might even have a strong MVP case — he is currently 16-to-1.

The pick: 49ers

If you put together a visual essay of this 2023 season, one of the enduring images would be of Jets coach Robert Saleh staring straight ahead emotionlessly. The weekly look was part frustration, anger, helplessness and shock, all under the veneer of stubborn pride. There is no way he was the one who wanted to stick with Zach Wilson all this time. What is he, a masochist?

The Jets are finally letting Wilson get back to the book club, benching him for Tim Boyle. Boyle was 7-of-14 for 33 yards and an interception when he came in last week … and his teammates are pumped. Boyle threw 26 interceptions and 12 touchdowns in college, and on Tuesday, the cocky son of a gun said, “You have to feel like you’re dangerous.” Lol. I’m in. Give me the points and whatever odds I can get on Saleh cracking a tiny smile.

The pick: Jets 

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Are you sitting down? It turns out Taylor Heinicke was not the answer at QB for the Falcons. Coach Arthur Smith is going back to Desmond Ridder, and their fates will likely be tied to each other. For the most part, the Falcons beat the teams they can run against and lose to good defenses, and the Saints are pretty good in the box. The guess is that Derek Carr is back from a concussion for the Saints, but he’s been disappointing enough that fans were calling for Jameis Winston. Both teams are coming off a bye, so this one comes down to coaching. The nod goes to … Dennis Allen?

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The pick: Saints

Last week, we said the Steelers are a bit of a fraud but no way can they lose to Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Incorrect. Hot off the presses, the Steelers are a bit of a fraud but no way can they lose to Jake Browning. Browning replaces injured Joe Burrow, and you know how the Steelers never change coaches? They also never lose to QBs making their first start — eight straight wins dating to losing to Brett Favre in 1992. The Steelers lost to the Browns last week because their offense stunk, and coordinator Matt Canada was fired on Tuesday. Pittsburgh ranks 30th in touchdown percentage (12.2) — on pace to be the worst by the Steelers this century — and doesn’t need a huge jump to win here.

The pick: Steelers 

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Always assume going in that you’re betting against the Panthers. They are 1-9 overall and 2-7-1 against the spread. They stink. Bryce Young may be Markelle Fultz being picked over Jayson Tatum (C.J. Stroud). So what are the reasons not to pick the Titans? Their offensive line stinks, and teams are blitzing Will Levis on half of his throws. The problem with that one is that the Panthers give up 4.3 yards rushing a pop, so Derrick Henry gets to eat this week. This frees up Levis to take some play-action shots deep. Tennessee’s defense can be had — especially in the air — but they won’t beat themselves against a bad team. The Titans have allowed the sixth-lowest percentage of carries to gain 5-plus yards (31.3 percent).

The pick: Titans 

We lost five games by a total of 7.5 points last week, and part of us wants to go back on some of those losing teams, like the Buccaneers, this week. Rachaad White should have a big day against the Colts run defense, but while Baker Mayfield will have some more time than he did against the 49ers last week, that might not be enough. The Colts have intercepted 11 passes, tied for fourth-most in the NFL and one more than they had all of last season (10). Mayfield has thrown interceptions in six of his last eight games, including each of the last two. The Colts are coming off a bye, so I will take the extra defensive scheming as well as Gardner Minshew being OK against a bad Buccaneers pass defense.

The pick: Colts 

Yes, the Patriots are really favored on the road — you don’t need stronger glasses. Rides on the Anti-Tommy DeVito Express are not cheap, especially after the Giants QB played so well last week. DeVito went 18-of-25 for 246 yards and three touchdowns on dropbacks in which he wasn’t pressured in the win over the Commanders. The Patriots defense ranks 29th in pressure rate (31.0 percent). They will try and blitz a lot, which has worked well in DeVito’s otherwise rough tenure in the NFL. The Patriots had a week off, so they are a little healthier, and we don’t know if Mac Jones has lost his starting QB job or not. But they will be able to run the ball on the Giants, so give us the nonsensical spread and the Patriots.

The pick: Patriots 

We lost by a half-point going against the Texans last week, as Stroud did indeed come back to earth, but the Cardinals couldn’t take advantage. And the game will be on Stroud’s shoulders again this week, as the Jaguars are very good against the run. The Jaguars offense, on the other hand, will be able to get chunk plays in the run game with Travis Etienne Jr., and Trevor Lawrence’s knee looked healthy last week and they finally opened up their offense. Lawrence averaged a season-high 9.5 air yards per attempt in the win over the Titans, and threw a season-high six passes to targets 20-plus yards downfield, completing four of them for 100 yards and a touchdown. After a couple of weeks off (1-1), we’re back on the Jaguars.

The pick: Jaguars 

Remember when the Broncos gave up 70 points to the Dolphins to fall to 0-3, how I said don’t sleep on their defense and Russell Wilson bouncing back? Yeah, neither do I. Sean Payton knows what he is doing, though he and Wilson are in for tough sledding against the elite Browns defense. Wilson won’t be able to lean on the running game and will have to make some quick decisions as Cleveland has Myles Garrett as well as a lot of cool blitzes.

The Browns have won three games this season without scoring an offensive touchdown, but I could see Thompson-Robinson dinking and dunking and running them to a sufficient two Sunday. Thompson-Robinson threw 39 of his 43 passes to targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage in the win over the Steelers — and the Broncos defense ranks 31st in the NFL in opponent passer rating on throws 10 yards or shorter (103.2).

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The pick: Browns 

The Cardinals have been very competitive with Kyler Murray back, and they lost to the Texans last week after failing to convert three fourth downs in the fourth quarter. The Rams’ Matthew Stafford, meanwhile, is playing with a thumb injury and overcame a rough start to pass Johnny Unitas for sixth on the fourth-quarter comebacks list with 35. He used play action on a season-high 33.3 percent of dropbacks against the Seahawks, throwing for 142 yards on such passes. And there is no reason for that not to continue, as the Cardinals are not good against the run and will have to bite.

The pick: Rams

The Raiders are 3-17 against the Chiefs since Andy Reid took over in 2013, and the Associated Press’ Josh Dubow informs us that all three wins came when Kansas City was on a short week. This week is a short one after the Chiefs’ loss in Monday’s Super Bowl rematch, so I think multiply that trend times two. Don’t forget the Chiefs have scored the fewest second-half touchdowns in the NFL (five) and have gone scoreless after halftime in three straight games.

Since interim coach Antonio Pierce took over in Week 9, the Raiders have allowed touchdowns on the second-lowest percentage of drives across the NFL (8.1 percent; 3 of 37), and they’ve been even better after halftime, allowing just one TD drive in 20 second-half possessions (5 percent). If the Raiders’ top two quarterbacks weren’t the league’s bottom two in interception percentage, I would pick the Raiders to win outright. But … I do think Aidan O’Connell is good enough for the cover.

The pick: Raiders

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The Bills fired coordinator Ken Dorsey and then changed … nothing on offense. Josh Allen, James Cook, the offensive line and the receivers just played better. Now they get an Eagles team coming off an emotional win in the Super Bowl rematch, even though they were outgained by the Chiefs 336-238. On a short week. With a game against the 49ers for NFC superiority on deck. The Bills defense worries me and seems vulnerable to D’Andre Swift, but I like the situation as well as Allen hitting his throws and not committing turnovers in the “new” offense. And I only need him to lose by three.

The pick: Bills 

The Ravens are up one game in the AFC North, where every team remains .500 or better, but it must feel like four or five with the Browns’ Deshaun Watson and the Bengals’ Burrow out for the season. Now they face the two mediocre L.A. teams, with the Chargers up first on the road before they host the Rams the next week. The Ravens can’t be too worried about a Chargers defense that has given up 238 points and also lost Joey Bosa to a foot injury last week. But the Chargers do a good job with scrambling quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson. Give me the home underdog, with Austin Ekeler having a big day and Keenan Allen making up for a dropped touchdown pass last week.

The pick: Chargers 

Joshua Dobbs finally lost a game in a Vikings uniform, but he is good enough to bounce back against a Bears team that is better against the run than the pass. Dobbs has made plenty of plays with his feet but has also been patient in the pocket since arriving in Minnesota, averaging an NFL-high 3.22 seconds from snap to throw in three games. The Bears have the NFL’s third-worst defensive EPA per dropback on throws more than 3 seconds after the snap (-0.25) and the fourth-worst opponent passer rating (98.1). Plus, the Bears outplayed the Lions last week before letting the win slip away, and I can’t see Justin Fields and company being that good again against Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. The Vikings win their sixth straight in the series, and I think fairly easily.

The pick: Vikings

Best bets: Lions over Packers and 49ers over Seahawks in Thursday stuffings, the Titans because the Panthers are that bad, Colts off the bye over the Buccaneers and the Vikings over the Bears thanks to their great coaching staff.

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Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Chargers over Ravens. Brandon Staley is not going out like Josh McDaniels. Not this week, at least.

— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Jason Starrett. 

(Top photo of Brock Purdy: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

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